Acrylic acid half Year review and forecast for the second half of 2018

The first half of the year is coming to an end. In 2018, China's acrylic acid and butyl ester markets are performing well. The overall trend is rising, and it is estimated that the average price of acrylic acid in the first half of the year is between RMB 7,570 and 7,590 / ton. The average price of butyl ester in half a year was 9679 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8800 yuan/ton, appeared in early January, the highest price was 11800 yuan/ton, appeared in late June.

The first half of the market mainly appeared two or three waves of rise.

The first wave of the rally occurred in February and March and was followed by a rapid correction in April. The reason for the increase is mainly related to the unexpected news of foreign installations and the relatively concentrated short-term maintenance in China. During this period, THE South American installations of BASF were stopped and the spot goods were transferred from China. East Asia synthetic 40,000 tons of butyl ester plant permanently shut down. After the market rose, the terminal began to digest about long and early inventory, the floor buying volume, consolidation, shipping demand appears, holders of profit or loss of shipping, resulting in butyl acrylate in April rapid decline.

The second rally took place in May. Raw material propylene rose at the end of March, which continued to push up the cost pressure of acrylic plants. By the beginning of May, the market price of propylene per ton has increased by more than 900 tons. Acrylic acid, on the contrary, did not rise but fell under the pressure of production growth, but with the reasonable balance between supply and demand and the accumulation of cost pressure, acrylic acid began to release rising energy. The raw material butanol was almost in a rising trend from January to May, with a significant increase from April to May, up 1600 yuan/ton, or 23%. During the corresponding period, butylacrylate increased by 1475 yuan/ton, which was not enough to offset the increase in cost. Therefore, the losses of butylacrylate plant continued to expand from April to May.

The third rally, seamlessly aligned with the second, took place in June. At this time, raw material propylene has entered a situation of consolidation, but acrylic acid continues to rise under the favorable background of intensive maintenance and declining output. The supply of butyl acrylate is very positive, but at the same time, it is affected by the weak growth of the downstream tape master coil and poor sales, which has a resistance effect on the rise speed and range. However, the overall operating rate is declining, the spot supply is general, and the overall rising trend is steady.

In the first half of the year, the low price of acrylic acid market refers to 7300 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is expected to reach 8600 yuan/ton. The high and low-end price difference is small, which is consistent with the limited fluctuation of the chemical industry predicted in the early 2018.

As can be seen from FIG. 3-Fig. 4, the correlation between acrylic acid and upstream propylene is low, and more acrylic acid fluctuates synchronously with downstream acrylic acid.

FIG. 4-Fig. 6 shows the correlation between butyl acrylate and its upstream and downstream in terms of market price changes, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.75 to 0.8, indicating a high correlation. On the one hand, it explains the phenomenon of downstream following the rise and fall of butyl acrylate in the first half of the year, and on the other hand, it verifies the possibility of upstream and downstream market interaction.

In 2018, the construction status was relatively stable, with obvious changes concentrated in June (including the following July). From August to September, some enterprises are faced with routine maintenance and replacement of catalysts. On the whole, starting load of acrylic acid will gradually recover from mid to late July.

Second Half forecast

On the one hand, the market in 2018 continues to be relatively stable compared with last year, that is, high and low-end prices will not be too big fundamental forecast.

On the other hand, the acrylic industry will encounter little resistance given the expected launch dates of two new units in the second half of the third quarter and near the end of the year.

In addition, considering the probability of ups and downs in previous years, acrylic acid is more likely to rise in August and September. However, according to the specific situation of this year, at present, the domestic acrylic acid and butyl ester at the bottom of the load, low inventory, tight supply, the holding side pull up the attitude is obvious, so it is estimated that the average price in July will be relatively optimistic, compared with the possibility of June. August market do conservative forecast temporarily, there are fuzzy factors in supply and demand. In the wake of the peak demand season for related products, especially considering the degree of close association between acrylic acid and butyl ester, it is necessary to consider and make a judgment at the same time. It is not ruled out that the probability of rising in September may increase again. And market inertia and demand is relatively stable in October, its average price or can still maintain a small high in September. However, we need to pay attention to the tension of the new device. If the new device is put into production as scheduled, we can make obvious bearish reference. According to the market in previous years, the possibility of rising in November is not high, and the probability is estimated that the average price in November may decline compared with October. The probability of the rise and fall in December is not clear, and there are device dynamics near the end of the year to follow up, so do not make predictions for the time being.

(Article source: Zhuochuang Information)